California Institute of Technology

To conduct replication studies on economics papers after running prediction markets that subjectively assess the probability of confirmations

  • Amount $283,935
  • City Pasadena, CA
  • Investigator Colin Camerer
  • Initiative Empirical Economic Research Enablers (EERE)
  • Year 2015
  • Program Research
  • Sub-program Economic Institutions, Behavior, & Performance

This grant funds a project lead by California Institute of Technology economist Colin Camerer to attempt to replicate the findings of 18 seminal papers in economics. Working with the original authors, Camerer has selected highly influential, highly cited papers that all deal with between-subject treatment effects that appeared between 2011 and 2014 in either the American Economic Review or the Quarterly Journal of Economics. Camerer and his team have worked with the original authors to design the replication experiments and have agreed in advance about what kinds of findings will constitute a confirmation and which will not. His team will also run a prediction market where knowledgeable economic experts can trade bets on the likelihood that various results are confirmed by the new data. The project will thereby not only measure whether these 18 experimental results can be replicated, but whether and to what extent the community of economists is able to reliably predict such replication when it is likely to happen and whether expert confidence serves as a good indicator of future replicability in economics.

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