University of Toronto
To expand the capability, and extend the viability, of the Social Science Prediction Platform as an online resource for collecting and compiling expert forecasts about the results of social science experiments
Which empirical findings are truly surprising? Economist Eva Vivalt at the University of Toronto will expand and enhance how the Social Science Prediction Platform crowdsources expert forecasts of research results. The platform allows social scientists to register predictions about the outcomes of planned studies before data are collected. This will highlight which results are truly surprising, help journals recognize the value of null findings, and improve the power calculations used to design empirical experiment. The plan is to enhance the platform’s capabilities and user base, integrating it with research registries and improving its long-term sustainability. By collecting thousands of forecasts across economics, psychology, and other social sciences, the initiative will also generate data for meta-research on expert judgment and forecasting acumen. Expected outcomes include an expanded database of predictions, scholarly publications assessing forecast accuracy, and greater adoption of forecasting as a standard practice to improve research transparency.