Overview

A consortium of funders, led by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and Coefficient Giving, is seeking to support primary research that can help develop consensus estimates of the return on investments in research and development (R&D). This coordinated call aims to spur rigorous, empirical studies that can narrow the range of existing estimates and inform public and private R&D investment decisions; it is being conducted as part of the Pop-Up Journal initiative (details in the appendix). The goal is to reach consensus about how to answer policymakers’ basic questions about the ROI on R&D.

Letters of inquiry are due by April 30, 2026. Grants are expected to be approximately $250,000 for the primary call, though larger requests may be considered for uniquely ambitious projects. Instructions for submitting and LOI can be found below.

Context

What is the social and economic return on investment in R&D? This question — often called “the Griliches Question” after the economist Zvi Griliches, who pioneered its study in the 1950s — has significant policy implications. The US government currently spends roughly 0.6% of GDP on scientific and technological R&D. It does so on the belief that this investment generates substantial benefits. But there is little consensus on how large those benefits are. Estimates range from roughly $2 in benefits per $1 invested, to $10 or more.

Answering this question presents complexities across data, measurement, operationalization, and identification. But there are reasons to believe that significant progress is possible. This consortium challenges scholars to produce the research necessary to build towards consensus on this difficult but vital question.

Sample Topics and Research Questions

We welcome Letters of Inquiry (LOIs) on any topic that can substantively contribute to estimating the returns to R&D. Research questions of interest include, but are not limited to:

• Estimating returns
  • How should the return to R&D be defined for the purpose at hand—private vs. social returns, and marginal vs. average returns—and what empirical objects best map to those concepts?
  • What are the returns to federal R&D spending? How does this vary across agency, program type, or funding design?
  • What are the social returns to corporate R&D? Is there evidence for differential returns to applied research vs. development?
  • To what extent are public and private R&D investments substitutes or complements?
• Spillovers, welfare, and policy
  • How do knowledge spillovers flow across firms, sectors, and borders? Can new data sources or methods improve our ability to trace them?
  • At what rate does knowledge produced by R&D become obsolete? Does this vary across fields?
  • How large are the welfare gains from R&D in domains where benefits are poorly captured by GDP?
  • How does public policy (e.g. tax incentives, program design, subsidies) affect the level and productivity of R&D investment?
• Methodology
  • What accounts for the wide range of published estimates, and what refinements or reconciliations across approaches might narrow disagreement?
  • What approaches to decomposing returns across sectors, technologies, and investment approaches can provide decision-relevant insight on the various sources of overall returns?
  • How can productivity impacts be measured in ways that are robust to alternative specifications and research contexts?

Proposals that are only theoretical, or only loosely related to the estimation of returns to R&D, are out of scope and will not be eligible for funding.

Submission Deadline and Process

Letters of inquiry are due by April 30, 2026.

Submission materials should be emailed to [email protected].

Given the number of submissions expected, we may not be able to provide detailed feedback on letters of inquiry.

Submission Components

Complete LOI packets should include the following components in the following order:

1. A 1-page cover sheet that includes the following information:
   1. Project title
   2. Principal investigator name and contact information
   3. Administering institution
   4. Purpose statement
   5. Amount requested
   6. Project duration
   7. Preferred start date
2. A project description1-2 pages in length, in 11-point font. Submissions should address the following questions, with each question serving as a section heading. Please indicate any flexibility on amount, duration, and timing:
   1. What is the core research question(s) and why is it important?
   2. What are the current knowledge gaps that this research will address?
   3. What is the proposed research methodology and workplan?
   4. Who are the key members of the research team?
   5. What will be the outputs from the research project and how will they be disseminated among various stakeholders?
   6. How much would the project cost, where would the money go, and what other sources of support can the project leverage?
3. References/Bibliography List of up to 2 pages
4. Brief CVs of key project leads and personnel (no more than 2 pages per person)
5. Letters of Support from research partners, stakeholders, data providers, or other collaborators (optional)

LOI Review Process

Together with a group of experts, staff from the Sloan Foundation and Coefficient Giving will review letters of inquiry after the April 30 deadline. A small number of selected submissions will be invited to prepare full proposals for consideration by our two organizations.

In addition, there are several other funders who have historically supported research related to the Griliches Question, including the British Academy, the U.S. National Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health SOS:Bio Program, and UK Research and Innovation. For meritorious Letters of Inquiry, our group of experts will provide letters of recommendation for research proposals submitted to such organizations. While we have discussed this project with these other funders, they will apply their own independent procedures and criteria concerning what grants they make.

Questions about the call, eligibility, or the submission process should be directed to [email protected].

About Coefficient Giving

Coefficient Giving is a philanthropic advisor and funder. Since our founding, we’ve directed over $4 billion in grants as part of our mission to help others as much as we can with the resources available to us. We invest an unusual amount of effort in selecting causes where philanthropic funding can have outsized leverage, and aim to balance evidence-based giving with ambitious bets on transformative opportunities. We work with a range of donors who share our commitment to cost-effective, high-impact giving; if you’re interested in exploring how we can help maximize the impact of your philanthropy, we invite you to connect with us.

coefficientgiving.org | @coeff_giving

About the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation

The Alfred P. Sloan Foundation is a nonpartisan not-for-profit, grantmaking institution dedicated to improving the welfare of all through the advancement of scientific knowledge. Established in 1934 by Alfred Pritchard Sloan Jr., then-President and Chief Executive Officer of the General Motors Corporation, the Foundation makes grants in four broad areas: direct support of research in science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and economics; initiatives to increase access and opportunity in graduate science education; projects to develop or leverage technology to empower research; and efforts to enhance and deepen public engagement with science and scientists.

sloan.org | @SloanFoundation

APPENDIX: The Pop-Up Journal on the Returns to R&D

This call for letters of inquiry is being conducted as part of the Pop-Up Journal Initiative. The first Pop-Up Journal is focused on organizing, curating, and synthesizing progress on estimating the returns to R&D; this call aims to support research that can advance the goals of this journal by providing a rigorous evidence base and set of active efforts to advance the field.

What is a Pop-Up Journal?

A Pop-Up Journal is a time-bound publication devoted to organizing, curating, and synthesizing progress on a specific, policy-relevant research question. Unlike traditional academic journals, which cover broad fields indefinitely, a Pop-Up Journal publishes multiple issues on the same focused question over a defined period — in this case, five years. More information can be found at popupjournal.com.

A Pop-Up Journal has two main roles, different from those of a traditional journal:

1. Curate progress and coordinate research on answering one specific and important research question that academics and practitioners know they need answered.
2. Provide regularly updated guidance on which answers to that question are most likely based on expert syntheses of, and measurable consensus about, the best available evidence.

What makes it different?

A Pop-Up Journal’s primary goal is to answer a specific, well-scoped question, rather than to assemble thematically related research. Accordingly, they have some unique features:

• Accessible synthesis essays, progress reports, and research agendas based on the latest advances
• Regularly updated estimates of quantitative answers to the question based on expert consensus
• Publication of work that is not typically published in conventional journals such as replication studies and descriptions of new datasets
• Identification of important evidence gaps and proactive efforts to spur new research to fill them

Relationship to this call

Engagement with the Pop-Up Journal is not required to submit a letter of inquiry or receive funding. However, funded research may be featured on the Pop-Up Journal platform, and researchers may be invited to participate in the journal’s annual conference or contribute to its synthesis efforts.

All journal content is expected to be open by default, with replication-ready data and code made available in a public repository. The journal takes no ideological positions on the answer to the questions it examines.

For more information about the Pop-Up Journal initiative, visit popupjournal.com.